New Delhi, October 6. With the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections over, exit poll estimates have come out. However, it is natural to question how much trust should be placed on these exit polls, especially when their estimates have proved wrong on many occasions in the last five years. Although exit poll agencies claim that they prepare their forecast based on the mood of the voters, but a closer look at the previous Lok Sabha and assembly elections reveals a different picture. Exit polls are often unable to predict the election results correctly, due to which questions are now being raised on their credibility. IANS has analyzed some of the previous exit polls. Let’s take a look at when the exit polls have proved wrong. 2014 Lok Sabha elections: In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won with a huge majority.
Many exit polls, including Axis My India and Chanakya, were unable to predict this. Although the exit polls had predicted that the NDA was coming to power, they failed to predict such a huge victory. On an average, eight exit polls had predicted 283 seats for the NDA and 105 seats for the UPA, while the results showed the NDA winning 336 seats. Whereas, the BJP got 282 seats, the UPA 60 and the Congress 44 seats. This shows that the exit polls could not predict the scale of victory. 2019 Lok Sabha Elections: In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it was predicted that the NDA would get 306 seats and the UPA 120 seats. But, when the results came in reality, the exit polls proved wrong. The NDA got 353 seats and the BJP alone won 303 seats. The UPA got 93 seats and the Congress got only 52 seats. Once again, the exit polls failed to gauge the mood of the voters. Voters voted much more for the NDA than expected. 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Most exit polls in this year’s Lok Sabha elections had predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). It was also estimated that the BJP would win more seats than the majority figure on its own, with the NDA being projected to get 361 to 401 seats.
However, the exit poll results proved to be wrong. The NDA got 293 seats and the BJP got 240 seats. India Today-Axis My India had projected the NDA to get 361-401 seats. News 24-Today’s Chanakya had projected 400 seats for the NDA. ABP News-C Voter had projected 353-383 seats for the NDA, Republic Bharat-P Mark had projected 359 seats for the NDA. This was a big mistake in the exit poll predictions. Unlike 2014 and 2019, the BJP also failed to secure a majority on its own and its tally has dropped by 63 seats from 303 to 240 since 2019. Exit poll predictions have proved wrong not only in the Lok Sabha elections but also in many assembly elections. In the 2019 Haryana assembly elections, exit polls had predicted that the BJP would get 61 seats while some exit polls had also predicted 75-80 seats. However, the results were completely different from the exit polls. The BJP won 40 seats. At the same time, the Congress managed to win 31 seats. Which was contrary to the exit poll’s estimate of a clear majority for the BJP.
C Voter had also predicted the BJP to win 72 seats, which proved to be wrong. Similarly, in the 2023 Chhattisgarh assembly elections, exit polls predicted a tough fight between the Congress and the BJP. The exit polls had claimed that the Congress would form the government in the state again. But when the election results came, the BJP returned to power. Once again the exit polls proved completely wrong. The BJP formed the government by winning 54 out of 90 assembly seats. The BJP was predicted to get a majority in the 2023 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, in which the party was estimated to get 140 to 162 seats. The BJP formed the government for the fifth consecutive time in the state by winning 163 out of 230 assembly seats. In the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections, many exit polls had predicted that the BJP would win more seats out of 294 assembly seats. But the Trinamool Congress performed brilliantly in the elections and formed the government for the third consecutive time by winning 215 seats. At the same time, the BJP won only 77 seats.
